Bartholomewtown is an independent news and interview podcast exploring Rhode Island through conversations with the people driving politics, culture, business, and public life. Hosted by journalist Bill Bartholomew, the show delivers insightful interviews, original reporting, and clear-eyed analysis from New England's smallest state—with stories that often resonate far beyond it.
Bill Bartholomew talks with Katie Sonder, Associate Director and Fellow at the Salve Regina University Pell Center, about the center’s August 2026 Voices of Value poll and what it says about Rhode Island’s Democratic and Republican primary races. The conversation focuses on the headline McKee-Folkes result, the unusually high number of undecided voters, and how academic polling can fill a gap left by shrinking local media polling.
Bill Bartholomew frames the poll, questions the methodology, and argues that academic polling is becoming more important as traditional outlets poll less often. Katie Sonder explains the survey design, the likely-voter screen, the two-step question process for undecided respondents, and why the Pell Center launched the project in the first place.
Key topics
In this episode, the main headline is the Democratic gubernatorial primary poll showing Helena Folkes ahead of incumbent Governor Dan McKee, 48% to 28%.
Katie Sonder says the most surprising finding is the size of the undecided bloc, especially in down-ballot races like Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, where nearly half of likely voters are unsure.
Sonder explains the poll’s two-question method for undecideds: respondents first pick among candidates, then are asked again if they have to choose.
The Pell Center’s Voices of Value project is designed to track Rhode Island views on state issues and national issues, including democracy, polarization, media habits, legislation, and bridge reconstruction.
Bill and Katie discuss the broader role of academia in polling and journalism as local media budgets shrink and fewer outlets produce their own statewide polls.
Sonder says the Pell Center sees the poll as a public good and a bridge between the university and the community.
On the Democratic side, Sonder points to crowded fields and lower name recognition as reasons for uncertainty in races like Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
Bill notes that in the Lieutenant Governor race, Sabina Matos and Zay Collin are near the top, but the undecided share remains very high.
In the Attorney General race, Kim Ahern leads the pack, but 46% of voters are still unsure.
The Senate discussion turns to the three-way race involving Jack Reed, Connor Burbridge, and Dr. Luis Daniel Munoz, with Bill arguing that Burbridge’s 12% reflects real campaign momentum.
On the Republican side, Sonder explains that the smaller sample size means a larger margin of error, but Elaine Poirino still holds a notable lead over Aaron and Jukian.
Bill emphasizes the transparency of the Pell Center’s materials, including the report, crosstabs, methodology, and survey questions.
Timestamps
00:00 - New Pell Center poll and the McKee-Folkes Democratic primary headline
00:44 - Katie Sonder on the biggest surprise: the undecided vote
02:30 - How the poll’s two-step undecided question works
04:49 - Why the Pell Center launched Voices of Value
06:03 - Academia, journalism, and the shrinking local polling ecosystem
07:14 - Why the Pell Center sees polling as a public service
10:48 - How Katie thinks about reliability and academic rigor
11:30 - Why down-ballot races have so many undecided voters
12:40 - Using the poll to inform voters and candidate research
13:10 - Jack Reed race, Connor Burbridge, and campaign momentum
All right, welcome into Bartholomew Town. I'm Bill Bartholomew. A new poll this week from the Salve Regina University Pell Center, uh Voices of Value Project. This is the August 2026 survey report. And look, the headline, Helena folks, least incumbent Governor Dan McKee, 48% to 28% in the Democratic primary for Rhode Island governor. We're joined here on the pod by Katie Saunder, who is the Pell Center Associate Director and Fellow to break down this poll and sort of get a sense of when the poll was taken and what it might indicate as we move forward here. Early voting starting in just a matter of really just a matter of hours from when most people hear this. Hi, Katie.
SPEAKER_03
Hi, Bill. Thanks for having me.
Bill Bartholomew
What what's your major takeaway, other than the obvious from this poll in terms of this being a snapshot in time? Is it the fact that so many people are undecided in so many races? Is it that it's consistent with other polls that we've seen from other academic or or media institutions over the course of the year or something else?
SPEAKER_03
Yeah, I think it if I'm thinking about the most surprising data to come out of the poll, it is the percentages of likely voters who are unsure of who they are going to vote for on primary day. Um certainly in the down ballot races for lieutenant governor and attorney general, we're seeing almost half of likely voters saying they're unsure. Um and even in the governor's race among the Democratic primary voters, we're seeing tw 22% who are still deciding between folks and McKee.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah. Yeah.
Bill Bartholomew
I mean, that's a major number when you think about the fact that, especially in the governors, in the Democratic primary, these are two people who have been running against each other for six years. So it's not as if these are two non-incumbents who are introducing themselves to the state for the first time. That also could be why that 22% number is there, because people are saying, look, I've seen them enough times, I don't really know who I want to go with. Now, that leads me to want to break down the methodology behind the poll. Can you explain how the poll works in terms of how people uh what what people heard if they were if they were asked a question about the governor's race, for example, and the multi-step process that led you to the um aggregate number that you put forth?
SPEAKER_03
Sure. Um well, this is a survey of likely primary voters in Rhode Island. So they're asked a battery of questions about their plans to uh vote in the primary election. And this poll was very much focused on primary day. Who are you going to vote for? Um, so the first question we asked was who do you plan to vote for between these two candidates for Governor McKee or folks? People said chose one candidate, said not sure. Um and if they said not sure, then they were asked again, if you had to choose, who would you choose between? Still, even in that um second question, among people who said unsure to the first question, we still see 64% sticking with their unsure vote. But we aggregate those two questions together to come to our data set, uh, what shows up in the report, which is that folks leads McKee 20 percentage points 48 to 28.
SPEAKER_02
Right.
Bill Bartholomew
And so basically the way this works is let's say I'm um the person that's that's you know responding to the poll. I'm a likely Democratic primary voter, and and the poll holster asks, hey, you know, who would you vote for who who's your preference for governor, McKee or folks? And I'd say, I don't have a preference. But then you are asked a subsequent question, which is, okay, well, if you had to pick between the two of them, who would you pick? And then from there, that the answer to the first question, if someone is folks, McKee or undecided, is aggregated with the secondary response, and that's how you come up with a number. That's that's a fair sort of elevator encapsulation.
SPEAKER_02
That's correct, yes. Okay.
Bill Bartholomew
What what made you decide to pull at this race? Because it's not free, right? You're not this this is a this is an undertaking. What's the gap or what did you see you needed to fill at the Pell Center?
SPEAKER_03
Yeah, Voices of Value is a survey project that is a little over two years old. And the overall project goal is to get an understanding of how Rhode Island voters view important Rhode Island issues, as well as American issues. We've asked in previous polls about perceptions of the health of US democracy, perceptions of levels of polarization, news media consumption habits, specific uh legislative questions, um, thoughts on the bridge reconstruction. Um, and when we started the project, we saw ourselves as filling a gap in Rhode Island on political polling. There weren't major political outlets or major news outlets putting out polling at that time when we began the project. Um, for this particular poll, it was focused entirely on the primary races to help provide a snapshot of where likely Rhode Island voters stood on the candidates.
Bill Bartholomew
You know, it's interesting because the Pell Center, I think of the Pell Center and some of the uh the great work that's come out of the center on journalism matters. For example, recently hosting a panel discussion, a whole day of discussion, um, including a panel discussion that I was a part of with other journalists and uh editors. And you know, what what is becoming more and more interesting to me is that there is a pathway where academia starts to fill in some of that which is being either destroyed by or corporations or gutted at minimum, and the difficulty for individual startups to try to launch something. It feels like academia is already doing journalism and take undertaking polling. That's traditionally the work of act of uh journalists. And here we have Salve, obviously Quinnipiac, etc. They're there are academic uh applications polling. But it's not like the Providence Journal did this, or WPRO or Channel 10. This is Salve Regina. Does this mark a shift in journalism to you?
SPEAKER_03
Well, I will say we have two of our fellows are former journalists, um G. Wayne Miller and and Colin Woodward. Um and and um Wayne Miller is doing a project through the Pell Center called Ocean State Stories, which is working to bring long-form journalism back to the state. Um Colin Woodard is grappling with questions of what's the American story that unites us across all 50 states. Um and and we see this as providing a public good, frankly, that um not only enhances the academic and social experience at Salve Regina, but um can act as a community bridge in these times where we're seeing um local news outlets shrinking budgets and and and collapsing in worst case scenarios. Um so that Salvay has the means to provide this service to the community. We're happy that we can do it.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah.
Bill Bartholomew
I think it's it's it's huge in a way that you know isn't being discussed enough, which is this is a dramatic shift in the role of academia versus not versus, but in terms of in related in relation to traditional media outlets. NPR, Publix Radio, or uh Ocean State Media, they're not polling. Uh as far as I know, maybe they are. They haven't put any polls out. Um the Boston Globe, I haven't seen any polls out. Um so uh Bartholomew Town, they're not putting polls out. It's super expensive. This is an important thing that's happening here in our political ecosystem, save for the WPRI Emerson poll and your poll, we would be left with basically a UNH poll that has been consistent, but it's sort of singular, and uh and then candidate polls. And so I hope you know this is like a this is a great service that that marks a shift in the way that elections are communicated in Rhode Island. This is a big moment.
SPEAKER_03
Yeah, I appreciate that. And and that was a major impetus for the start of this project that we we noticed this gap and um felt that we had the means and the expert teams to fill it. And um, you know, as an academic institution, there's no partisan lean uh where a bipartisan center that is um also uh uh we ourselves as a as a bridge between the community and the university as well.
Bill Bartholomew
Yeah. All right, last question on the specifics of this poll. And by the way, I would encourage anybody who's hearing this who wants to go a little deeper. Um, I was able to book Katie yesterday for WPRO. Great interview with Dan York uh that really breaks down the specifics of the poll. If you want to go deeper, rather than rehash that for both for mostly for Katie and all of your time, Dan did a great job with it. 997 WPRO.com, or just look wherever you're listening to Bartholomew Time can find the Dan York show. But but just in terms of this specific poll, and I think some of the revelatory revelations in Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, it does seem to be clear that we now have kind of some front runners from what we're looking at right now. Um but then of course, who knows? So what as as the voice, if you will, behind this poll, what's your message to voters out there? What's your message to candidates on the reliability of these numbers and in terms of how they should position themselves uh based on the numbers that you've put forth?
SPEAKER_03
Um well, first um to answer your question on reliability, we use standards of academic rigor and um expertise and polling to um not only craft our questions, but also ensure that we're receiving a sample that accurately, as best it can, represents voters who are likely to show up on primary day. Regarding the down ballot races, in particular for uh Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, uh crowded fields compared to the gubernatorial race and um Jack Reed's um seat for Senate, for example. So we see more candidates, and so there's more dispersion uh for um people picking who they're going to vote for, um, and less name recognition, frankly, I think, um, compared especially to someone like Senator Jack Reed, who has been in a seat uh for many years. In the lieutenant governor's race, we see incumbent Sabina Mattos uh with at 18%, um, two percentage points ahead of the next closest candidate, which is former Newport Mayor Zye, but 48% of um likely Rhode Island voters saying they are unsure. Similar numbers for the AG, 46% saying they're unsure of who they're going to vote for. Kim Mahern coming in strongest with 23% of the vote. Again, a crowded, a more crowded field, um, less name recognition. Um, but um, I think one of one of my personal hopes for putting out a poll like this is that it gets the king and its names in front of people. It shows what their ballot will look like and potentially encourages them to do research like candidates, understand their priorities and their stances on issues that um greatly impact the the livelihoods of Rhode Islanders day-to-day.
SPEAKER_02
Yeah.
Bill Bartholomew
And there's some stuff as well that jumped out to me is that that, for example, in that Jack Reed race, which is a you know polled as a three-way race, it is. It's also featuring Dr. Lewis Daniel Munoz, no stranger to longtime listeners of this podcast who ran for governors in 2018 and 2020 and has been on as an expert in the past as well. But what he had three percent, but Connor Burbridge um at 12%. Yeah, that makes sense. You know, because there's the whole thing, well, you're always gonna get 30-something percent if you just put your name on the ballot, right? If you're a Republican in Rhode Island, you know, you're just by being on the ballot, there's 30 to 37 percent usually available for you as an opposition figure. Same in a primary, Jack Reed's not gonna run 100%. Um, there's always gonna be some room. But Connor Burbridge is a guy who, you know, over the last year and a half has been on the ground hustling and actually campaigning and building some kind of momentum. Is it David Morales momentum? No. But is it real? Yes. So it's not surprising to see it show up as 12%. Same with a head-to-head between Kamzavorovang and Matos and the lieutenant governor's race. That feels right. It passes the feel test. I know that's not data. I know that's not particularly academic, but it also does measure the pulse of the state in tandem with the numbers. So, from that standpoint, I think those numbers are extraordinarily reliable just in terms of an initial burst. I was surprised to see Cindy Coyne at 2% in that lieutenant governor's race. That feels like a dramatic underperformance. I don't think she would be a front runner, but uh to be surpassed by Ross McCurdy, who's got like $7,000 in his account is surprising. But um, let's move to Lassa here to the Republicans. Very difficult to poll Republicans in Rhode Island. The sample size is difficult to capture in a meaningful way. Yet at the same time, this poll shows that Elaine Polino continues to have something like a 20-point lead over Aaron Gukin in the Republican gubernatorial uh primary. What do you make of that? What do you make of that in terms of is it relying, can we pull Republicans reliably in a way where we can hold those numbers side by side with the Democratic primary, which are pretty tried and true in terms of reliability?
SPEAKER_03
Yeah, we we pulled 307 likely Republican primary voters out of our uh survey total, which was around 857. Um so if we're talking deep in polling best practices, you're talking margin of error, which is uh a confidence measure of um uh this person might end in this case, um Polino's coming in at 37%. Our poll is saying that she's likely to land within 30% um of the 37% of the vote, give or take 3.6 percentage points on either side. But the margin of error gets bigger the smaller your sample size. So when we're talking about the Republican primary uh and 300 people, that margin of error is a little higher. So it gets up to like 5.6% in there on either side of that 37%. Um, so we we're less confident for lack of a better term when our sample size gets smaller. But um we're pulling the right amount of people to be at a comfortable level of confidence. Um but with that race in particular, and on the Republican side, again, we see 44% are unsure. Um, so we can't make an accurate prediction at this point of who is going to win that particular race. Looking at the crosstabs for that um between those two candidates in particular, um, Polino has the most support generally across demographics, um sex, age, location, um, except for um people of color who pulled ahead for Gukie and Yeah.
SPEAKER_02
Well, bizarre it's a bizarre time.
Bill Bartholomew
I mean, it's been a long time coming. The Rhode Island Republican Party has been in very, very dire straits organizationally. And uh here you have two candidates who, you know, both struggle outside of maybe those who really pay attention. Nobody has any idea who they are. You know, I think that that so outs on an average basis. So it's it's even more difficult to pull because it's not like, okay, here's Alan Fong and another name you might recognize. So um extraordinarily difficult to poll right there. Um look, uh I think it's worth it's well worth people perusing this for themselves. You don't need any sort of special degree or any kind of special equipment to review these polls. Um, and you could certainly understand it, particularly if you use an AI chatbot to ask you how to break down some of the numbers if you are unsure. But uh and I would encourage people to go through it and start to understand these for yourself. So as they come out more and more, particularly when they're academically driven, not candidate-driven, you can start to weigh whether or not what you're reading feels like what you're feeling out in in public, uh, much like this poll does right here. So, Katie, how can people find the actual poll just if you could give them a call to action?
SPEAKER_03
Absolutely. Telecenter.org is the place for um finding this poll. And um, yeah, as you were saying, Bill, uh, we value transparency in the in this polling work. So you can download the report, which shows the data and easy-to-read graphs. You can download the cross tabs, which shows every question and the percentage, the percentages of answers across all demographics. You can download the methodology statement, you can download the survey questions that we put in front of the survey respondents, um, so so people can really see the entire picture and then decide how deep they want to go into the data.
Bill Bartholomew
Yeah. And I like I said, I think that transparency is so critical and feels it feels different. It feels, I don't know, if it I recognize it as a consumer, that the fact that you can go in deep and see for yourself that there's no manipulation. You know, we're live, we're we're swimming through this sewer of the death of expertise. I always think of Tom Nichols and his book, and and you know, academia, journalism, science, whatever it is, is under attack. There's no other way to put it. It's just a reality. And whenever this type of stuff comes up, I always say, well, then go get the report, read it. If you can't figure it out, just ask an AI chatbot to walk you through it. It's right there to see, and be grateful that we have civically engaged institutions like the Pell Center at Salve and smart people like Katie Saunder in our community, and we're not out here just winging it. So, and that's where we would be if it weren't for these kinds of institutions. We would be winging it and relying on candidate based polling and third party expenditure based polling, and then you know a WPRI here and there to drop one. So thanks to the Pell Center.
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