Bartholomewtown is an independent news and interview podcast exploring Rhode Island through conversations with the people driving politics, culture, business, and public life. Hosted by journalist Bill Bartholomew, the show delivers insightful interviews, original reporting, and clear-eyed analysis from New England's smallest state—with stories that often resonate far beyond it.
Rhode Island’s primary sprint, the Providence mayor’s race, and the shakeup in statewide politics
With early voting underway, Bill Bartholomew and Jim Hummel (The Hummel Report, Ocean State Media, WPRO) break down a Rhode Island primary that feels unusually compressed, low-energy, and wide open in several marquee races. They focus on the governor’s race, the Providence mayoral primary, and how turnout, apathy, and candidate organization could decide everything.We discuss why the governor’s race appears to be Helena Foulkes versus Dan McKee, why Providence mayor could be the most consequential contest on the ballot, and how the attorney general and lieutenant governor primaries are shaped by heavy uncertainty and weak candidate separation. The conversation also zooms out to the collapse of Rhode Island Republican infrastructure and the question of whether independent Ken Block can change the dynamics.
Key topics
The primary feels like a sprint after a long buildup, with very little time to energize voters before election day.
Hummel argues that apathy is the dominant force in this cycle, especially because many races feel either predetermined or hard to differentiate.
In the governor’s race, Dan McKee is framed as carrying a long list of political liabilities, including the Washington Bridge, CVS/opioids, and general voter fatigue.
Helena Foulkes is seen as holding a consistent polling advantage, with multiple polls showing her ahead by a meaningful margin.
The Providence mayor’s race between incumbent Brett Smiley and challenger David Morales is described as the most interesting contest, with Morales bringing national attention and youthful energy.
Smiley’s strength is his political infrastructure, especially his turnout operation and support from Eddie Catucci, who is described as a master of mail ballots and ground game.
The lieutenant governor and attorney general primaries are portrayed as crowded and muddy, with lots of undecided voters and very little ideological separation.
The discussion notes that gun policy and constitutional concerns may be pushing some Democratic voters away from more aggressive positions in the AG race.
National anti-incumbent sentiment is seen as helping challengers broadly, but not necessarily translating cleanly to every local race.
Rhode Island Republicans are described as deeply weakened, lacking a coherent bench, a strong message, or an effective opposition strategy.
Aaron Guckian and the Republican gubernatorial field are viewed as weakly positioned, while the congressional races are portrayed as even more chaotic.
Ken Block is treated as the most plausible wild card in the governor’s race, especially if he can consolidate support or benefit from a one-on-one dynamic.
Timestamps
(00:00) Opening the primary sprint and why this cycle feels flat (01:43) Why turnout and election-day energy matter more than usual (03:23) Providence mayor becomes the race to watch (05:36) McKee’s polling problem and the uphill climb in the governor’s race (06:23) What could help McKee and what still works against him (07:31) Smiley’s turnout machine versus Morales’ grassroots energy (08:42) Why the lieutenant governor and AG races are so unsettled (09:46) Little separation in the AG field and the gun policy divide (11:23) Does national anti-incumbent anger spill into Rhode Island? (13:14) What Providence schools and city management mean for Smiley (14:15) The collapse of the Rhode Island Republican ecosystem (15:55) Why the GOP congressional slate looks so weak (17:14) How Trump hollowed out the state party (19:41) Could Ken Block become the real governor’s race alternative? (21:55) Block’s media strategy and money challenge (22:25) Election day timing, early voting, and closing thoughts
When you look at this Broadown election cycle, what's the first thing that comes to mind? Yeah, the marathon always turns into a sprint, doesn't it? And I I don't know. I've had disagreements with people on this. I think there's a lot of apathy out there. I think in the in the governor's race between Helena folks and Dan McKee, it's you know, it's a rematch from four years ago. Uh there's been, as Buddy Sance used to say, gum on each of their shoe. The Washington Bridge has been a big brick around Dan McKee's neck, CVS and the opioids. And I think people are just kind of tired. And then you look, and we'll we'll dive deep into it, but the overview is the AG and the lieutenant governor's race, there's four competitive people in each race, and people are like, what is going on? And the other thing, Bill, is our primary date needs to change. I don't hold out hope that it will, but we've been watching since February, March these cut these primaries all over the uh country because people are interested nationally, what's gonna happen with the midterms, but we're almost an afterthought in in September. And then you only have eight weeks to lock and load. This year it's a day late because of uh Labor Day's as late as it can be. So my feeling is I'm going around a lot of people, even though a lot of the elections are gonna be decided on primary day, people are like, I'm skipping the primary. I so voter turnout, I'm very interested to see what it's gonna be.
Bill Bartholomew
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see also from the standpoint of, you know, not only voter turnout, but the just the feeling on election day, which is such an abstract thing. But what what are the what is the the after uh shock look like in as what do the after parties look like? How much energy is really around all of these, or really around all these campaigns, all these people in in in terms of comparing and contrasting to previous years, where it was very real? And you could see that there was a lot of enthusiasm in the days leading up, a lot of rallies, a lot of organic conversation. I just don't know if we're gonna see that this year. If it feels like many people have either checked out or they've decided this thing is already wrapped up in terms of the governor's race, but I do think that in the Providence mayor's race, there is a lot of buzz.
SPEAKER_01
And then the question is will that help hurt whatever wise uh, you know, voter turnout? How does that help maybe Sabina Matos, who is a former uh Providence City Council member? Does that give her a little bit of an edge as she's in a really close race for lieutenant governor? I will be interested to see what the turnout is in Providence and what the demographics are, because a lot of David Morales has has energized a lot of young voters. But who traditionally votes in a primary? It's the old guys like me. It's the people who have always turned out, well, the greatest generation is is is almost gone now, but people who always have taken voting as a sacred right, whether it's a primary or a general election, because they fought in World War II. They fought in the Korean War, to a lesser extent the Vietnam War. And so will all of that buzz around David Morales' campaign and the new voters that have come in, will that translate to getting people into the voting booth?
Bill Bartholomew
Right. I think, yeah, Providence Mayor. I mean, let's let's talk about that because that probably is the most interesting race in a lot of ways. It's it's for anybody who doesn't know or hasn't been paying attention, it's Mayor Smiley, who's the incumbent Democrat being primary by Representative David Morales. Morales is coming from uh a leftist position, Smiley viewed by many as more of a technocrat and I guess a centrist Democrat, if you will. So that's the the fault line. It's gain it's garnered national attention, national money. And Morales in some by some metrics right now, by some internal polls and even on, I don't know, we can make of this, but the prediction markets have him as a prediction market signs and endorsements don't win races.
SPEAKER_01
It's get out the vote. And look, I'm I'm I'm Switzerland on this, but uh Brett Smiley not only ran a campaign that toppled an incumbent governor when he ran Charlie Gov uh Charlie Fogarty's race. That's why he came to Rhode Island from Chicago 20 years ago. He has been in politics the last 20 years. He's run his own race. He ran a race that he dropped out in 2014. So it's all voter rolls fun. Look at his fundraising. It's 10 to 1 on Morales. And we're we were talking about this a lively last weekend. Morales said, well, yeah, I'm not gonna advertise on TV like it's a dirty medium. Both of my panelists said if he had the money, he'd be on TV. So does money totally uh do it? I'm not sure. I do know in the governor's race, I mean, Dan McKee's basically gone dark because he does not have the money that Helena Folk has going into the at the end of the primary. And I said, I as I said earlier, our primary is geared who's paying attention in June, July, half of August. Now, kids are going back to school beginning today in my community and a lot of other communities. So that almost flips the political mental switch. All right, now it's time to get geared in. The nights are a little bit cooler. Oh, there's a primary coming up. Maybe I'll early vote. Maybe I'll do the old traditional way, and I'll go uh I'll go actually on Wednesday the ninth and see. So we'll we'll see how that translates. Um in the but we'll you'd start asked my question, you'd ask me a question early on about the governor's race. It it's a it's a tough road to hoe for McKee. The WPRI poll showed him now 15 points down instead of 20 points down. Last I checked, there's two weeks until election day. So unless the polls are wildly off, and I'm not saying that they haven't been in the past, but every poll we've seen, whether it's been the Salve poll, uh the UNH poll, or the WPRI Emerson College poll, they've all pretty consistently had Helena folks with a pretty good uh lead.
Bill Bartholomew
Yeah, no doubt about it, that the governor is facing from a pollable electorate standpoint an uphill climb. They're arguing that look, we've got the votes, we've got the whether it's union membership, whether it's just on the ground working people, the polls are not hitting, and election day is gonna show a different result than these polls are predicting.
SPEAKER_01
In his favor, he's actually true. Even though the AFL CIO sat on the sidelines, he has been chipping away with like local uh union endorsements over the last two to three weeks. Whether they can get their people out, who knows? The other thing is I think apathy would work really in his favor if fewer people are gonna get out to vote for Helena Folks. What works against him, if you look at the crosstabs on the on the WPRO poll, is the unfavorability ratings just have not changed for Dan McKee. So if you're gonna look at undecided, and it's 25% still, they're not likely to break Dan McKee's way. He needs those undecided votes to come to his side. And the union support what in the poll is not exactly what you think it would be. So he really needs all of that to go his way. And again, if you believe the poll, it's just not in the cards.
Bill Bartholomew
Yep. To be determined in that regard. Looking, let's go back to the Providence Mayor's race, if we could, for just a moment. The the other thing that is is true, and you alluded to it in terms of just political infrastructure. Yes, the grassroots movement that we've seen from Dave Morales is impressive. No question it's turned into something very real. He's obviously a competitor in this race. But Smiley, he's got Eddie Catunia behind him right now, or working with him, the mail ballot king of Rhode Island. He knows the trenches. He knows the political game in a way that it's gonna be very difficult from a turnout standpoint to beat Smiley. And I think that that you're you're totally right. It's a get out the vote campaign. So, with that sort of mindset, how does that translate and, do you think, to other races outside of Providence that may not have a morales or smiley type of get out the vote?
SPEAKER_01
I was filling in on radio a couple of weeks ago and we looked it up in the in the most recent competitive Republican primaries for governor. Jim Bennett took on Don Kuciri in his first race, and then Alan Fung and um Ken Block in 2014. You're lucky to get 25 or 30,000 people. And now the Republicans are such a smaller subsection. So the question is as you translate to the other uh races, the AG, it's really Kim Ahern and uh Keith Hoffman at this point, but it's 35% undef decided, and in the eight in the uh lieutenant governor's race, it's 43% as a commanding lead. Because who really knows? We know Sabina Matos, but it works against her. She had that congressional race disaster a couple of years ago with the signature scandal. Do people really know Mayor Zy Kam Zavorovong? We do, we've heard of him. It's a difficult name to pronounce. He's from Newport. Uh Sabina um uh Cindy Coin and Sue Anderbaugh are down the line. I didn't even know there was a guy Russ McCurdy running. I didn't know that until I read the poll, and he checks in at a robust 2 or 3%, 4%. So I I think there's apathy because I honestly I think a lot of voters don't want to have to do the homework. There's so it's not a it's not a Helena Folk Dan McKee situation in those other races. It's a lot of people, and there's not a lot of separation between them, except in the AGs race. Joe Solomon is not as progressive. He's a little bit toward, I would call him a moderate to conservative Democrat. Um but I mean, beyond some of that, what what what is the difference when you line them all up? Look, you had them on the debates, right? Did you see anything stand out in that in those debates that would separate them from the field?
unknown
Did you see anything stand out in that?
Bill Bartholomew
No, and and even Solomon, as much as he had the differentiation that moved him a little bit to the right of the others, it wasn't there like there were questions about transgender sports participation that they were aligned on. So there wasn't even like a uh messaging standpoint, there's really any separation. It's basically people. He's to the right. He he did not uh sign, he he he was not on board with the bills, the the one that passed, and then the most recent one, which nobody was on board with. That was the one that was um proposed they share the heavy.
SPEAKER_01
Studied the conf he's to the right, but he studies constitution says they're waiting for one good gun bill to come before the Supreme Court. I don't know why it hasn't come yet, but uh a lot of this stuff well, particularly with this court right now, I think is going to get struck down. So I think you're right. The Democrats were like, that's a bridge too far for me. Confiscation? Come on, that's that is totally unconstitutional.
Bill Bartholomew
What about the connection between what's happening on a national stage and local politics? It feels like right now, you know, you would think with the resentment that a lot of people have, in honestly on both sides, but certainly the anti-incumbent resentment when it comes to the president. You would think that would trickle down a little bit more to local elections.
SPEAKER_01
Do you think there is a connection there or are they kind of viewed as separate things right now as far as people as Donald Trump as you could get? But you know, McKee, it's almost like he's had two terms. It's really been one and a half, but he, you know, he's filled out Gina Raimundo's term which he went to be the unexpired term, which he went to be uh Commerce Secretary, and another one. But if he gets elected, it'll be 10 years. And I think there is one voter fatigue. I think there's a lot of stuff that just has has stuck to Dan McKee, whether it's been ILO or the Washington Bridge or this payroll system that people are just like, look, I don't care who it is, he's at the top, state government's broken, we need somebody new. This is what happened in 2016 with Donald Trump. I mean, I was doing talk radio back then, and I'm like, Donald Trump is never gonna win primaries. Donald Trump's never gonna get elected. And I realized in retrospect, people were just tired of the same old, same old. And the thought was, how bad can it be? Well, we found out with Trump how bad it could be twice. But I think with Helena Folk, we'll see what happens if she gets by and whether, you know, who who she she'll be against Ken Block and whoever the Republican is. But I think the feeling that government is just failing us, what has this Congress done for us other than and Trump's leading the way on the chaos? But what substantially have they done to make our lives better, to make our lives better? And in fact, they've made it worse. So I think that definitely works against incumbents in this race. I'm not sure that's gonna be a spillover with Brett Smiley. I don't, you know, I don't think there's an anti-incumbent. He's only been there four years. And I think for the most part, he has done a pretty, except for the snowstorm, but it was a record snowstorm. I think he's delivered on what he said. Our our colleague Dan McGowan at the Globe had an interesting column that be care what be careful what you wish for, because yesterday was opening day of the Providence Schools for the first time in his mayorship under city control. And it really is it's almost a definite lose one way or the other. You're not gonna gain a lot of goodwill from having the trains and the buses run on time, but a lot could go wrong. Um, whether that happens in the next two weeks, I don't know. So that's that's kind of all over the place. But I think to your central question about is there trickle down from Washington, I think it's definitely let's get rid of the people who are in. We just need change of some sort.
Bill Bartholomew
Zooming out a little bit, just kind of looking at the well, it's there are two Republican races that are look, we've talked a lot over the years on lively experiment, and I've certainly talked about it here on Bartholomew Town and WPRO. I remember back in the day when I started the podcast, Mike Chippendale or Blake Flippy or Republicans would be pretty frequent guests. And then, you know, people like Blake and others got out of politics altogether, and then the Chippendales dug in, and I haven't talked to him in three or four years. It just feels like there's a big divide there in a lot of ways. Um, it's it just feels like that's siloed off from the rest of the ecosystem uh that that I operate in anyway. Nobody uh that there's not many people who are going to give the Republican Party a look at just because they're an opposition party, we'll put it that way. Now that's cemented even more when you take a look at their candidates for governor right now and for and in the congressional race. Aaron Kirk Kean is a guy who's a, you know, he's a smart guy. I think he's got a lot to offer the state, and I think he's got a lot to offer in general. But, you know, come on, what kind of gov what kind of campaign is he really able to run when he's trailing somebody whose resume and and basic origin story nobody really knows. In Elaine Polino, who described herself as a social media influencer, if you watch the debate that they did on Channel 10, it was just uh it was shocking. It was shocking to see that the state of that race and there to for the Republican Party. Look at the Congressional District 2 race, you get this uh obviously Steven Scoli. Look, he's a local oral surgeon. He took on the state over vaccine mandates. Um, but he's a local guy. He's taking on this Vic Meller. Who knows who he is? Now he's got commercials that purport to have his ex-wife, who was a victim of domestic violence, standing up for the. I mean, it's just a it's a bizarre Michael Flynn Chasey type of operation.
SPEAKER_01
Actually, just within the violent Republican Party is the Republican primary opposition. Um between Polino and um and Kuki. And um, whoever emerges, I think, just gets in the way of Ken Block really giving either Dan McKee or Helena Folkes uh uh a run for the money. And at the end of the day, I mean you have you have Skoly and Meller not beating each other up, but Meller's got all this money that he's self-funded and he really is very Trumpy and MAGA. That's never gonna play, even in the second congressional district. If anybody was gonna win that race, it was gonna be Alan Fong. And truth be told, I think if you asked, if you gave uh Seth Magazine a little truth serum on election day, he would have said, I don't think I'm gonna win this race when he woke up. Now, he was reflective. You remember the Washington Post came in and did the big story when Kevin McCarthy was the House speaker and came in to uh to do a fundraiser for Fong that said, watch Rhode Island. It could be indicative of what's going on in the rest of the country. And you know what? It was, but not in the way they expected. It was because uh the red wave did not materialize. So I agree with you, especially in Rhode Island, that just the the Republican Party, I think, has been directionless for a while. And I also think you have to start, you have to start with the General Assembly. You need to be able to get enough people to sustain a veto or to work with others so that the House Speaker just can't go, we're gonna do this, this, this, this, and this, and nobody can question him or her because they've got all the votes. And so I think it was really, I think the best opportunity the Republicans had was after Don Kachiri got elected in 2002. That 2004 mid-cycle election, Kachiri should have been out there at every rubber chicken dinner trying to get Republican, you know, because he was considered a a common sense Republican. Let's, and this is long before Trump, let's do this in the General Assembly that I can get somebody sustain a veto. Never happened. He got re-elected, then he was a lame duck. And the Republican Party's never been the same since.
unknown
Let's do this in the Java Sunday that I can get somebody sustained a veto.
SPEAKER_01
We were, I was at the Biltmore with the Democrats that night, and we had to wait. They didn't call the race. Charlie Hugh was barely reelected. They didn't call it until one o'clock in the morning. Then of course, over the last decade, it's been Donald Trump. He has sucked all the oxygen out of the Republican room. And I just think nationally, the Republic you know, I tried to get Jack Reed to tell me this. We had him and Game Ammo over at Ocean State Media last fall for kind of a back and forth with Ed Fitzpatrick. And I tried to get him to say, look, in the quiet moments with your Republican colleagues who have been there for so many years, why aren't they standing up to Trump? And he said the quiet part out loud, which Lisa Murkowski did of Alaska, they're scared of him. They're just scared with social media and people, you know, now he can unleash the mob. So I think in Rhode Island, they're the log cabin John Chafee Republicans just don't exist anymore. And so the you see all these battles on the I think Aaron Guquin's pretty, pretty moderate. But I think if you look at the congressional races, it's just they'll never I'm really interested to see whoever emerges from that, how they're gonna do in the general election. Because I just I think it's gonna be a wipeout.
SPEAKER_02
Oh, absolutely.
Bill Bartholomew
I and in fact, you if if they're being honest about it, they probably would drop out and and maybe even you would see a party. Or how about this? If the Republican Party endorsed independent Ken Block, who that's my last question here, Hummel, is you know, Ken Block is no stranger to Rhode Island politics. He's been in and out of you know, different levels of the orbit, two-time gubernatorial candidate. He was um definitely high profile when he wrote the book that was about his experience working for the Trump campaign, trying to find proof of voter fraud. He's a data analyst by by that's his one of his businesses, um, and didn't find it. And then he wrote a book about it, and he became sort of an opposition figure to MAGA in some way, made a national name for himself, has done some independent, I guess you would call it good government watchdog type stuff on the bridge and other projects. And now he's running for government and pulling it 21 to 20 something percent. Nancy Lavin, do you think if there was competitive if the Republicans get behind him?
SPEAKER_01
I mean, it's really kind of hard to see what has he done over the years. Um yes, if it was a one-on-one race, Ken Bloch would eat Helena Folk for lunch in a debate. In a one-on-one debate, I have no doubt. Um, I presided over uh uh debate that Gro Grossmart had. A lot of these a lot of these um candidates are playing uh defense rather than offense. Recently, they've kind of poked the bear. McKee came out as I think he needed to. But uh Helena Folk, and I've talked to people about this. I like her personally. I think she's uh sh would probably surround herself with good people. She's a little thin on some of the issues. Um now is that look, Ronald Reagan was a little thin on some of the issues and people surrounding him and good people, and that's what you have to do in administration. But if it got into uh, okay, one-on-one, we're gonna, you know, not have a distraction of another person over here, I think those would be very, very interesting debates. So will they drop out or get behind Ken Block? We'll see. But again, once you emerge from that primary, it's a very, very short timetable.
Bill Bartholomew
Yeah, but and Ken Block, who has I mean, he's he's mounted uh some some sort of effort, if you will, to get himself out there. He's been on earned media a little bit on the radio and a little bit on television, but it's mostly clear that he's kind of waiting to deploy his messaging. I mean, I've seen signs, I'm not saying he's not out there, but he's gonna need a big wave. And it's gonna have to come in a way that doesn't involve big time television spending because he just doesn't have, at least now it doesn't seem to have the dough to do that to compete with either Helena Folkes or who is the likely winner. Even if McKee gets in, he'll get then get a lot more money coming his way.
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